Here’s a breakdown of the indicators that consumers should keep an eye on, according to experts.
One of the most closely watched indicators of an impending recession is the “yield curve.” A yield is simply the interest rate on a bond, or Treasury. government issuing these securities compensates investors for risks – is higher on a bond with a longer maturity.
It’s important to pay attention to these employment measures.
But there are more than just headline numbers worth following.
Bloomberg also has its own consumer comfort index published weekly.
Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Businesses publishes a monthly survey showing sentiment among small firms.
Every week, a variety of these statistics are released.
Though there’s no best indicator to follow, some are more widely watched than others.These Treasuries have differing lengths of duration, known as their maturity. The curve, therefore, compares how those interest rates change over time. [COMPARE: Best online savings accounts and rates] “If you’re an investor, and you’re given the choice for investing for a month or investing for 10 years, you would say, ‘Listen, a lot more can go wrong in 10 years than it can in a month.I’m going to demand a higher interest rate, a higher yield,’” says Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America.For consumer confidence, the University of Michigan publishes a monthly consumer sentiment index with two updates: first a preliminary and then a final reading.The Conference Board, a research and business membership association, publishes its own gauge.When businesses hire temporary workers, it could indicate that they’re not as confident about the future of the economy.